As a fan of trades in the NFL Draft and a fan of the Cleveland Browns, the first round on Thursday night was particularly enjoyable for me.
As we look at the trades, it’s important to remember that the Sports + Numbers value chart is related to the value of the pick alone – so any trades will likely offer some surplus to the team that trades down. The size of that surplus will vary and help determine which trades are big wins or losses. The classic Jimmy Johnson chart is based on trades that took place so it should include the surplus already.
Buffalo trades up to #4 with Cleveland
CLE receives: 92% of a #1 pick
BUF receives: 73% of a #1 pick
Winner: Browns receive 26% more than they traded away, equivalent to an early 3rd round pick as surplus
Let me be clear: the Browns absolutely fleeced the Bills on this. The numbers above hold only if you assume the standard NFL rule that next year’s pick is worth a round less than this year’s – with an implied discount rate of about 140%. If you set that at 20%, still high for a business, the Browns got back 109% of a #1 pick and a surplus of a late 1st round pick. If you start to think about how bad Buffalo might be next year, you can talk yourself into even more value as the Bills sent Cleveland next year’s 1st and 4th round picks along with the #9 pick to move up 5 spots.