NFL Draft Trade Machine

Welcome to the Sports + Numbers NFL Draft Trade Machine, a handy resource to see what teams can do with the assets they have and to evaluate trades as they happen. While I am biased toward my own value chart, I included several others so that individual users can select the one they prefer or look at the differences.

Make edits to the blue-shaded cells to customize for any scenario you want to look at and see where it lands on the graph (with actual 2012 trades overlaid as black diamonds).




I've given in to my recent fixation on the NFL draft and decided to focus exclusively on it for the next few weeks. For those of you just stopping by for the first time, check out a few of my NFL-themed posts:

• Draft-themed
• A summary of the various draft value charts 
• Detailed introduction of my own draft value chart and analysis of whether it fits the results on the field
• Analysis of whether the NFL combine helps or hurts accuracy of draft picks
• The top ten drafts of the salary cap era (split into 10-6 and 5-1)
• Other NFL
• A look at injury rates for running QBs and non-running QBs
• Two articles about how frustrating forecasts are as a Browns fan (actually analyses of future power rankings and beginning-of-season forecasts)

Additional notes on the trade machine:

• Sources for each chart
• Existing Chart: Here's a version at ESPN
• Sports + Numbers 
• Football Perspective
• Harvard Sports Analysis Collective
• Discount Rate - Cade Massey and Richard Thaler's paper, The Loser's Curse, provides the 136% number
• Mean Reversion - I've found this to be roughly 58% in the last 20 years
• 2012 trade data