For the second year in a row I participated in an
against-the-spread contest with some high school friends for the college bowl
season. For the second year in a row I didn’t win (15/16 this year, 4/25 last
year).
I did, however, get some good anecdotes:
Familiarity
This group of people mainly from Columbus, Ohio and mainly
living in the Midwest still has a bit of a Big Ten problem. Last year the group
was 15% more confident in games involving Big Ten teams than games not
involving them while underperforming against the spread – the ATS win
percentage was 47.2% for these games and 48.2% for non-Big Ten games.
This year the group was 17% more confident when a Big Ten
team was involved while managing to win 48.8% of them. The win percentage on
non-Big Ten games was 53.4%.
Confidence
Last year the group was overconfident in what turned into
losses, betting 21.0 points against 19.5 on games they ended up picking
correctly. This year was flipped with the wins worth 21.6 while losses were
20.6.
As is evident in the chart below, however, there was no
correlation between confidence and success.
Confidence (pt. 2)
The game with the highest confidence was (inexplicably) the
Outback Bowl between Northwestern and Tennessee featuring 13 out of 16 people
picking the wrong team and an average confidence of 30.4. The least confident
game was San Jose State vs. Georgia State with 9 of 16 teams picking correctly
at an average confidence of 8.9.
Confidence (pt. 3)
After assigning the national championship game the lowest
aggregate wager last year (8.8 out of 39), this year people were feeling a bit
more lucky and gave it a higher risk than 8 other bowls (16.4 out of 41)
despite not knowing which two teams would be contesting the game.
14 of 16 got the Orange Bowl right while only 2 of 16 got
the Cotton Bowl correct (Big Ten) with 11 of the 16 ending up with a viable
championship game pick (5 Clemson, 6 Alabama). The Alabama picks were worth
19.8 – above the 14.3 for losers – so maybe those people were on to something.
Great info! I recently came across your blog and have been reading along.
ReplyDeleteBack Office Services
Thanks for sharing this great infos
ReplyDeleteYou have a good blog i always check it :)
دانلود آهنک
دانلود آهنگ جدید
om the earliest EDUCATION MUT starting point of February through to the last piece of December. The school year is typically part into two semesters. Every semester comprises of two terms every multi week long (4 altogether).
ReplyDeleteInformation is very informative also you can click over here ,and get such type of info, this is the great resource to get such type of information.
ReplyDeleteBeing Impatient: Everyone is occupied today. Magazines and different distributions are frequently arranging out issues a half year ahead of time. Paper journalists are attempting to meet the present due date. Furthermore, book analysts have piles of books to audit. amryl
ReplyDeleteThen again, on the off chance that it's only for show or intermittent use, at that point warm water waterfalls might be something important to you.pool help
ReplyDeleteWhen your website or blog goes live for the first time, it is exciting. mahadevi birla world academy syllabus That is until you realize no one but you and your
ReplyDeleteseeking out an excellent newbie's cue and value in your dollar? McDermott, Helmstetter, Quest, Dufferin, Mali, etc. make correct stuff and maximum of ... ping pong rules pdf
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing this great infos
ReplyDeleteYou have a good blog i always check it...
دانلود بازی اندروید
Thank you for your post, I look for such article along time, today i find it finally. this post give me lots of advise it is very useful for me. above ground pool service near me
ReplyDeleteFabulous and totally enchanting, Cleverly constructed by the writer.
ReplyDeleteAnthony Castro
I found your this post while searching for some related information on blog search...Its a good post..keep posting and update the information. Zwembaden
ReplyDeleteIn his 28 years, in the betting scene, he is yet to have a losing season. That is the reason he has earned the name of Sports Betting Champ. 1 토토 1 스포츠토토
ReplyDeletehave for you some best points from greatest table tennis matches of all time!!! ... Best table tennis matches EVER {Part 1} ... the worl fan zhendong
ReplyDeleteUsed Pool tables are everywhere on Ebay, Craigs List, and Local Classifieds. "Buyer Beware" tags should be posted on each of them. ... Used Pool Tables Buyers Guide Part 1. RSS. Used Pool tables are everywhere on Ebay, Craigs List, and Loca Used Pool Tables – Price Guide and More.
ReplyDeleteUtilized Pool tables are wherever on Ebay, Craigs List, and Local Classifieds. "Purchaser Beware" labels ought to be posted on every one of them. ... Utilized Pool Tables Buyers Guide Part 1. RSS. Utilized Pool tables are wherever on Ebay, Craigs List, and Loca pingpongtableguide how to Used Pool Tables – Price Guide and More.
ReplyDeleteThe Galeries Lafayette is one of the most distinguished and famous shopping landmarks in Paris. Their high-fashion displays and grand old-world architecture (including a very fine stained-glass dome) make any shopping there a remarkable experience. Sports
ReplyDeleteIn any case, individuals playing b-ball games get an opportunity to truly use an assortment of aptitudes that they may not generally ever use.토토사이트
ReplyDeletewow, great, I was wondering how to cure acne naturally. and found your site by google, learned a lot, now i’m a bit clear. I’ve bookmark your site and also add rss. keep us updated. 파워레인저 먹튀
ReplyDeletefirst-rate knowledge, restructure everybody mind merely reference assign assist to to it 토토사이트
ReplyDeleteYou can lawfully wager on sports today through one of the several distinctive online game betting destinations where they are altogether headquartered at seaward betting foundations in nations where it is lawful to hold such exercises.betting sites
ReplyDeleteThat appears to be excellent however i am still not too sure that I like it. At any rate will look far more into it and decide personally! รูเล็ต
ReplyDeleteThis changed into a absolutely frightful contest and optimistically i'm able to attend the neighboring one. It changed into alot of a laugh and that i in fact enjoyed myself.. 토토사이트
ReplyDeleteInvestors procure long haul returns 토토 by owning a segment of an organization. A few business analysts state that "sports financial specialists" have a worked in innate return as "chance exchange."
ReplyDeleteIn any case,find new beeting sites for betting on the off chance that the group loses the game, at that point the individual loses his betting money and will likewise not get any extra reward cash. This gaming procedure is simple and has no complexities.
ReplyDeleteHey, this day is too much good for me, since this time I am reading this enormous informative article here at my home. Thanks a lot for massive hard work. 메이저사이트
ReplyDeleteIt is worth of reading for me, You covered many nice points very clearly.
ReplyDeletehave you take a look of t5 grow lights indoor planting.
A few researchers likewise call attention to Persia and Netherlands as where golf took its inception. Presidents Cup Golf 2019 Live Stream
ReplyDeleteNANUM 명품 그래프게임 그래프사이트 부스타빗소셜그래프 추천 가장 완벽하게 그래프사이트를 운영하는 곳을 추천합니다 소셜그래프게임에 대한 안전성을 확실히 해결한 그래프사이트입니다 부스타빗을 조작 없이 즐길 수 있는 메이저사이트로 초대합니다 여기를 클릭하십시오 그래프사이트
ReplyDeleteThe laws of cricket are very confounded, however here is a short outline of the game. Cricket crews comprise of 11 players on each side and the game is played on an enormous oval field.Matt
ReplyDeleteTo make the wagering experience more even, it is the practice of the bookmaker or the odds maker to determine in advance, the odds of the two teams winning or losing. This is done, so as to give you a chance to bet on the probability of a competitors/team's chance to win that single game or event.토토사이트
ReplyDeleteI welcome a few from the Information which has been made, and particularly the comments posted I will visit yet again. 해외배팅사이트
ReplyDeleteI really enjoy simply reading all of your weblogs. Simply wanted to inform you that you have people like me who appreciate your work. Definitely a great post. Hats off to you! The information that you have provided is very helpful. 안전토토
ReplyDeleteGreat job for publishing such a beneficial web site. Your web log isn’t only useful but it is additionally really creative too. There tend to be not many people who can certainly write not so simple posts that artistically. Continue the nice writing 영앤리치 먹튀
ReplyDeleteThe expanding notoriety of golf as a game occasion is giving a driving force to the golf attire and gear producing. Masters 2020 Live Stream Free
ReplyDeleteA sports fanatic eats, sleeps and breaths everything about sports. A sports fanatic will know every single fact or history detail about every sport. They know every rule, every player of a team, and every detail that has to do with that team or sport.recreation tipsy
ReplyDelete. Width is likewise a factor you have to consider. This is the motivation behind why you'll normally discover the letters A, B, C, and E when looking for shoes on the web. visit website
ReplyDeleteAt all levels of sports, from high school to professional, all athletes and their coaches want to achieve their peak performance in sports. It is a inner desire of human to succeed and be the best.메이저사이트
ReplyDeleteThis blog is decisively what I was hunting down.
ReplyDelete먹튀
This is very educational content and written well for a change. It's nice to see that some people still understand how to write a quality post.! sexy gaming
ReplyDeleteIn the process, sbobet login I hope to give athletes and coaches alike how to practically apply these principles and which are the factors with higher weightage in terms of achieving success and peak performance in sports.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, there are many businesses that revolve around sports and 카지노사이트 a majority of them are multi-million dollar industries and are highly profitable. Sports' betting is one such associated business.
ReplyDeleteAdding to the staggering designs and material science are online highlights like being have the option to play against anyone on the planet, and with a network of millions playing FIFA consistently, this can mean very extraordinary rivalry. Premier League
ReplyDeletePresently, as large an enthusiast of softball and baseball I am, I need to be the first to concede that there is no conspicuous response to what in particular sport your children ought to participate in. https://tonysportstrainingequipment.com/table-tennis-training-device/
ReplyDeleteAdding to the staggering designs and material science are online highlights like being have the option to play against anyone on the planet, and with a network of millions playing FIFA consistently, this can mean very extraordinary rivalry. Premier League li
ReplyDeletekako
plre
sha
JJ
web
The sports coach must be able to build a team from a bunch of individuals, prepare them thoroughly, instilling sports psychology concepts in the players, work on the fundamentals, study his opponents and his team, and also manage his players effectively. https://penzu.com/p/894e98d3
ReplyDeleteBu gibi durumlarda Çevrimiçi Terapist Rehberi, bu tür sorunların üstesinden gelmek için en iyi alternatif olabilir. online terapi
ReplyDeleteChecking out their competition will help keep them honest, prodding them to continue to work hard to attract your hard-earned money. 안전놀이터
ReplyDeleteYour blog provided us with valuable information to work with. Each & every tips of your post are awesome. Thanks a lot for sharing. Keep blogging, Meoktu site
ReplyDeleteWonderful illustrated information. I thank you about that. No doubt it will be very useful for my future projects. Would like to see some other posts on the same subject! totodubai 먹튀검증
ReplyDelete13 handicappers picked Minnesota to dominate the match (David Chan, Cappers Access, Robert Ferringo, Easy Money Sports, Tommy Gold, Dozo Games Handicapping, Insider Sports Report, Super Sports Group, B&S Picks, Executive, Teddy Covers, Tom Law Longball Sports, Ats Baseball Lock Club)
ReplyDeleteonline slots
The CSOne is web-based maintenance management software designed for maintenance and repair service providers. It is specifically designed to fulfill the requirements for these services and successfully improved productivity of thousands of users around the world get more info
ReplyDeleteMonetary rewards have been at a record-breaking high, expected to obscure more than $100,000 in group giveaways in the following schedule year. Supporters have begun paying heed also, with any semblance of EA Sports, Nerf, Hotels.com, Red Bull and other significant brands seeing the worth and development from banner football as an approach to viably arrive at their intended interest group in huge numbers. eltoro tips
ReplyDeleteMmm.. great to be here in your article or post, whatever, I figure I ought to likewise buckle down for my own site like I see some great and refreshed working in your site. 토토사이트
ReplyDeleteOn the off chance that you don"t brain continue with this uncommon work and I foresee a more noteworthy measure of your eminent blog sections. 먹튀검증
ReplyDeleteI'm impressed, I must say. Very rarely do I come across a blog thats both informative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you ve hit the nail on the head. Your blog is important.. Judi Casino Online Terbaik
ReplyDeleteStudents that may need nursing assignment help should be contacting our tutors for the best expertise in the industry. Our outstanding help with nursing assignment offer our clients very competitive services at very affordable prices. We are the leading experts in nursing assignment help. We tend to offer our clients qualified writing services addressing topics discussed very deliberately.
ReplyDeleteThanks to my father who shared with me concerning this website, this web site is truly amazing.
ReplyDeleteHere is my web site -휴게텔
1948 saw the development of the Adidas organization by Adolf (Adi) Dassler after an altercation with his sibling that was to frame the foundation of football boot producer competition for the previous years up to the present time. Clicks Test
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteHey
Do you also have the same problem as everyone? That you have build a very beautiful website, but only receive a small amount of traffic to your site. I would like to share some information with you. Please contact me, my details are below. 오피사이트
We should investigate the sort of material used to create best rackets. On the lookout, we can buy great tennis racquet which is figured from dark lead combined with boron and titanium to frame a lighter and more strong grass tennis racquet.Aryna Sabalenka Net Worth
ReplyDeleteTherefore, it is not uncommon for people to pay attention and apply for membership with online casino websites to start playing baccarat games, and of course, if you are one of those people who are interested in playing baccarat games. บาคาร่าออนไลน์
ReplyDeleteYou finished certain dependable focuses there. I did an inquiry regarding the matter and found about all people will concur with your blog. Blackout Window Cover
ReplyDeleteThese are the steps that every pool builder should follow when building a swimming pool. find more
ReplyDeleteI'm a really fortunate male today. After seeing your writing, I saw such excellent info as well as my expertise increased also better. I assume I will certainly have the ability to invest a delighted day in your Deokbook. I wish you have a pleased day as well. I will certainly constantly sustain you. 바카라사이트
ReplyDeleteI'm dazzled, I should state. In all respects infrequently do I run over a blog that is both useful and engaging, and let me let you know, you ve hit the nail on the head. Your blog is significant.. 메이저놀이터
ReplyDeleteA debt of gratitude is in order for offering this quality data to us. I truly delighted in perusing. Will without a doubt going to impart this URL to my companions. 메이저놀이터
ReplyDeleteIntriguing post. I Have Been pondering about this issue, so much obliged for posting. Really cool post.It "s truly extremely pleasant and Useful post.Thanks เล่นสล็อตโรม่าฟรี
ReplyDeleteHello I am so delighted I located your blog, 바카라사이트
ReplyDeleteThis is my website and it has been very helpful. Hello. I found your blog through Google and found it to be really informative. We would appreciate it if you continue to do so in the future. Many people will benefit from your article. Please leave a comment on my site as well. help my site
I am very thoroughly enjoyed for this web diary. Its a valuable subject. It help me such a lot to deal with a couple of issues. Its shot are so wonderful and working style so fast. business plan creator
ReplyDeleteI saw your article well. You seem to enjoy 안전놀이터 for some reason. We can help you enjoy more fun. Welcome anytime :-)
ReplyDeleteThis is a truly good site post. Not too many people would actually. the way you just did. I am really impressed that there is so much information about this subject that have been uncovered and you’ve done your best. with so much class. If wanted to know more about green smoke reviews. than by all means come in and check our stuff. casino relevant Backlinks
ReplyDeleteJoining a college bowl pool adds excitement to the season, making every game more thrilling. It’s always fun to test your predictions against friends and see who comes out on top. Some people rely on stats, while others go with gut feelings—either way, it's unpredictable and engaging. A well-organized pool keeps everyone involved until the final game. Just like picking the right teams, choosing high-quality Digitizing Services USA is crucial for embroidery businesses. Precision and expertise make a difference in both embroidery and sports predictions! Who’s your top pick this season?
ReplyDelete