Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Thoughts on my college bowl pool

For the second year in a row I participated in an against-the-spread contest with some high school friends for the college bowl season. For the second year in a row I didn’t win (15/16 this year, 4/25 last year).

I did, however, get some good anecdotes:

Familiarity

This group of people mainly from Columbus, Ohio and mainly living in the Midwest still has a bit of a Big Ten problem. Last year the group was 15% more confident in games involving Big Ten teams than games not involving them while underperforming against the spread – the ATS win percentage was 47.2% for these games and 48.2% for non-Big Ten games.

This year the group was 17% more confident when a Big Ten team was involved while managing to win 48.8% of them. The win percentage on non-Big Ten games was 53.4%.

Confidence

Last year the group was overconfident in what turned into losses, betting 21.0 points against 19.5 on games they ended up picking correctly. This year was flipped with the wins worth 21.6 while losses were 20.6.

As is evident in the chart below, however, there was no correlation between confidence and success.



Confidence (pt. 2)

The game with the highest confidence was (inexplicably) the Outback Bowl between Northwestern and Tennessee featuring 13 out of 16 people picking the wrong team and an average confidence of 30.4. The least confident game was San Jose State vs. Georgia State with 9 of 16 teams picking correctly at an average confidence of 8.9.

Confidence (pt. 3)

After assigning the national championship game the lowest aggregate wager last year (8.8 out of 39), this year people were feeling a bit more lucky and gave it a higher risk than 8 other bowls (16.4 out of 41) despite not knowing which two teams would be contesting the game.

14 of 16 got the Orange Bowl right while only 2 of 16 got the Cotton Bowl correct (Big Ten) with 11 of the 16 ending up with a viable championship game pick (5 Clemson, 6 Alabama). The Alabama picks were worth 19.8 – above the 14.3 for losers – so maybe those people were on to something.

31 comments:

  1. Great info! I recently came across your blog and have been reading along.
    Back Office Services

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for sharing this great infos
    You have a good blog i always check it :)
    دانلود آهنک
    دانلود آهنگ جدید

    ReplyDelete
  3. om the earliest EDUCATION MUT starting point of February through to the last piece of December. The school year is typically part into two semesters. Every semester comprises of two terms every multi week long (4 altogether).

    ReplyDelete
  4. Information is very informative also you can click over here ,and get such type of info, this is the great resource to get such type of information.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Being Impatient: Everyone is occupied today. Magazines and different distributions are frequently arranging out issues a half year ahead of time. Paper journalists are attempting to meet the present due date. Furthermore, book analysts have piles of books to audit. amryl

    ReplyDelete
  6. Then again, on the off chance that it's only for show or intermittent use, at that point warm water waterfalls might be something important to you.pool help

    ReplyDelete
  7. When your website or blog goes live for the first time, it is exciting. mahadevi birla world academy syllabus That is until you realize no one but you and your

    ReplyDelete
  8. seeking out an excellent newbie's cue and value in your dollar? McDermott, Helmstetter, Quest, Dufferin, Mali, etc. make correct stuff and maximum of ... ping pong rules pdf

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks for sharing this great infos
    You have a good blog i always check it...
    دانلود بازی اندروید

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thank you for your post, I look for such article along time, today i find it finally. this post give me lots of advise it is very useful for me. above ground pool service near me

    ReplyDelete
  11. I just got to this amazing site not long ago. I was actually captured with the piece of resources you have got here. Big thumbs up for making such wonderful blog page! click here

    ReplyDelete
  12. Fabulous and totally enchanting, Cleverly constructed by the writer.
    Anthony Castro

    ReplyDelete
  13. I found your this post while searching for some related information on blog search...Its a good post..keep posting and update the information. Zwembaden

    ReplyDelete
  14. In his 28 years, in the betting scene, he is yet to have a losing season. That is the reason he has earned the name of Sports Betting Champ. 1 토토 1 스포츠토토

    ReplyDelete
  15.  have for you some best points from greatest table tennis matches of all time!!! ... Best table tennis matches EVER {Part 1} ... the worl fan zhendong

    ReplyDelete
  16. Used Pool tables are everywhere on Ebay, Craigs List, and Local Classifieds. "Buyer Beware" tags should be posted on each of them. ... Used Pool Tables Buyers Guide Part 1. RSS. Used Pool tables are everywhere on Ebay, Craigs List, and Loca Used Pool Tables – Price Guide and More.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Utilized Pool tables are wherever on Ebay, Craigs List, and Local Classifieds. "Purchaser Beware" labels ought to be posted on every one of them. ... Utilized Pool Tables Buyers Guide Part 1. RSS. Utilized Pool tables are wherever on Ebay, Craigs List, and Loca pingpongtableguide how to Used Pool Tables – Price Guide and More.

    ReplyDelete
  18. The Galeries Lafayette is one of the most distinguished and famous shopping landmarks in Paris. Their high-fashion displays and grand old-world architecture (including a very fine stained-glass dome) make any shopping there a remarkable experience. Sports

    ReplyDelete
  19. In any case, individuals playing b-ball games get an opportunity to truly use an assortment of aptitudes that they may not generally ever use.토토사이트

    ReplyDelete
  20. wow, great, I was wondering how to cure acne naturally. and found your site by google, learned a lot, now i’m a bit clear. I’ve bookmark your site and also add rss. keep us updated. 파워레인저 먹튀

    ReplyDelete
  21. first-rate knowledge, restructure everybody mind merely reference assign assist to to it 토토사이트

    ReplyDelete
  22. You can lawfully wager on sports today through one of the several distinctive online game betting destinations where they are altogether headquartered at seaward betting foundations in nations where it is lawful to hold such exercises.betting sites

    ReplyDelete
  23. That appears to be excellent however i am still not too sure that I like it. At any rate will look far more into it and decide personally! รูเล็ต

    ReplyDelete
  24. This changed into a absolutely frightful contest and optimistically i'm able to attend the neighboring one. It changed into alot of a laugh and that i in fact enjoyed myself.. 토토사이트

    ReplyDelete
  25. Investors procure long haul returns 토토 by owning a segment of an organization. A few business analysts state that "sports financial specialists" have a worked in innate return as "chance exchange."

    ReplyDelete
  26. Great work man i would like to congratulate you on this effort https://cadtechlabs.com/

    ReplyDelete
  27. In any case,find new beeting sites for betting on the off chance that the group loses the game, at that point the individual loses his betting money and will likewise not get any extra reward cash. This gaming procedure is simple and has no complexities.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hey, this day is too much good for me, since this time I am reading this enormous informative article here at my home. Thanks a lot for massive hard work. 메이저사이트

    ReplyDelete
  29. It is worth of reading for me, You covered many nice points very clearly.
    have you take a look of t5 grow lights indoor planting.

    ReplyDelete
  30. A few researchers likewise call attention to Persia and Netherlands as where golf took its inception. Presidents Cup Golf 2019 Live Stream

    ReplyDelete
  31. NANUM 명품 그래프게임 그래프사이트 부스타빗소셜그래프 추천 가장 완벽하게 그래프사이트를 운영하는 곳을 추천합니다 소셜그래프게임에 대한 안전성을 확실히 해결한 그래프사이트입니다 부스타빗을 조작 없이 즐길 수 있는 메이저사이트로 초대합니다 여기를 클릭하십시오 그래프사이트

    ReplyDelete