Top Ten: 2013

It’s been an exciting year at Sports + Numbers, with several posts that went beyond my normal several dozen readers into several hundred or thousand. As you can see in the top ten list below (in descending order to the number one post by pageviews) this was a particularly good year for football posts. I encourage you to look around and see if there is something new to you among these. Readership has grown steadily throughout the year so some of my favorites (8, 9 and 10 particularly) may have been old news by the time you found the blog.

Over the next few days/weeks I am working on another interesting NFL-related post about the effectiveness of signing free agents so keep an eye out for that. Until then, enjoy the greatest hits from 2013:

10. Some news is worse than no news

Another strong post from NFL Draft season. Using Mel Kiper’s rankings immediately before and immediately after the scouting combine, an analysis of whether the additional information of the combine actually makes predictions sharper on a position-by-position basis.

9. Luck vs skill in NFL draft performance 

The first of a series I did searching for evidence of above-average performance in drafting attributable to skill rather than luck. This post looked at year-over-year performance of teams while subsequent posts examined individual team performance within a single draft and finally any evidence of outperformance among players selected after a team traded up.

8. On the injury rates of running QBs 

Using team-reported injury data (Probable, Questionable, Doubtful, Out) this analysis looks at whether the week-to-week change in level of injury is correlated with the number of QB rushes and sacks.

7. Sports Gini: Inequality within major sports 

The first of a series of posts I did over the summer looking at the impact of income inequality at a sport level (teams vs other teams) and then at a team level (players vs other players) to see if inequality helps or hurts a team – effectively looking at whether it’s better to have a star and a bunch of nobodies or a broader core of “good” players.

6. What's the matter with Win Probability?

Examination of the year-to-date performance of Win Probability in assessing actual probability to win games. Shortly after this (but sadly not because of this) Brian Burke at advancednflstats.com introduced some updates to the model that render some of this irrelevant. 

5. NFL draft value charts for everyone! 

A quick summary of the differences between the classic Jimmy Johnson draft value chart and some of the other offerings out there including my own.


4. Faster 3 & outs for everyone: Pace of play in the NFL 

Look at how fast teams are playing (faster) and whether faster teams actually have better offenses (not really).

3. What are NFL draft picks worth (and do they help teams win)?

This one is cheating a bit, since I first published it in November 2012. That said it was my third most popular post this year so I’m including it anyway. This was intended as a book chapter and the (slightly) higher quality really shows (formatted graphs! attempt at narrative structure! spell check!). Check this out for all you ever wanted to know about the NFL Draft and probably some more beyond that.

2. NFL draft trade evaluations

Purely by-the-book analysis of pick for pick trades in the 2013 draft. Posted after Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 of the annual selection meeting.

1. NFL draft trade machine

The biggest hit by far in a good year for the blog. Not necessarily the most exciting from an analytical point of view, this post does a nice job making my draft value chart (and others) actionable by bringing in a bit of Excel expertise from my day job to make a trade evaluation tool.

On the injury rates of running QBs: The future is now

The NFL, we are told at length, is on the brink of a new era of dual-threat quarterbacks. These new QBs will take advantage of their rushing ability to put the defense off-balance and change the way the game is played. Stop me if you have heard this before.

The dual-threat QB is hardly a new phenomenon. Quarterbacks were, of course, originally more like running backs in the early days of football. While my command of football history is far short of sufficient for this or any other analysis, such names as Fran Tarkenton, Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Steve Young have demonstrated the power of a QB with the ability to run the ball.

That a dual-threat QB could offer an improvement over a traditional drop back passer should not be in serious dispute. Given two QBs of equal passing ability, the one of the two with greater rushing ability will almost certainly have better performance – in passing as well as in rushing. The statuesque, lumbering traditional QB will have far fewer scrambles for first down, more sacks (assuming equal ability and judgment to throw the ball away in a hopeless situation) and more marginal throws forced in.

The dual-threat QB will have a huge impact even before the snap. The defense will have to consider him a threat to run even on a play that looks like a certain pass, pulling one defender away from the passing game and opening up better opportunities for completion. Once the play begins, the dual-threat QB will have the benefit of an additional option should the receivers look covered. Rather than forcing a marginal throw, throwing the ball away or taking a sack, this QB can make something happen on his own. Again assuming equal judgment and passing ability, the dual-threat QB will trade some of the worst throws of his almost-doppelganger for some scrambles that are far less likely to be turnovers and far more likely to yield positive yardage.

Despite all this upside the dual-threat QB seems prone to injury concerns that will keep him out of reach. Redskins fans in particular may be having second thoughts about Robert Griffin III tallying 120 runs – tied for the league lead among quarterbacks.