Wednesday, March 26, 2014

NFL Draft Trade Machine 2014

Now that free agency is winding down it is time for teams to shift their focus to the draft. This handy trade machine will allow you (and them) to play GM by constructing trades and seeing winners and losers according to the classic draft value chart and a number of updated versions, including my own. 

For a look at the analysis that underlies my revised draft value chart, check out this post here.

For a look at evidence for team skill in drafting year over year, within a single draft and after making a trade up, check out the respective links.

If you've forgotten which teams have which picks here's a link to that.

Otherwise, enjoy the 2014 Sports + Numbers Draft Trade Machine:



If you enjoy this, have a look at my top posts from last year and my recent four-part analysis of the impact of changing teams on performance and value.

8 comments:

  1. This is really phenomenal, Steve!

    Something about it seems a hair off, though. Let's look at the CLE Johnny Manziel trade and the Football Perspective pick values.

    CLE traded 26 and 83 to move up to PHI's 22 spot.

    All the following values are from the FP calculator on the FP site: http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-pick-value-calculator/
    FP #1 pick is worth 34.6.
    FP #22 pick is worth 14.9

    Your Draft Machine lists the percent for #22 as 44.1% (of the value of the #1 pick). But 14.9 / 34.6 = 43.1%

    It's as if you used 33.8 for the value of FP's first pick instead of 34.6

    This carries through to the end results as well where the final result of the trade is slightly different than the result you get straight from FP's site.
    The Draft Machine says the winner of the Manziel trade according to FP's values is the team trading back (the Eagles) who received 38.8% more value than they traded away.
    FP's site says the Eagles received 36.9% more value than they traded away.

    I don't know if this issue is just isolated to the FP results. Or it's plenty likely I'm misinterpreting your process. I'd love to understand what is creating these tiny dependencies though, as I can't help but be hesitant to use this tool without questioning it until then. Obviously it's an incredible tool, and I thank you for creating it for everyone to use!

    And as an Eagles fan (I believe you are a Browns fan?), we'll see how that trade shakes out!

    @ByAJRodriguez

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    Replies
    1. Glad you enjoy the tool, and surprised you caught this discrepancy.

      The Football Perspective chart, as posted here (http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/) only runs through pick 224. This fits with a 7 round draft for 32 teams, but the NFL awards compensatory picks that push the draft to 255 picks. I extrapolated the next 31 picks to be able to rate trades comparably through the end of the draft. The revised cutoff value for replacement value adds a certain amount (roughly 1.8%) to both the numerator and denominator, causing the discrepancy you noted.

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    2. Just to clarify - since I'm noting that my response might be confusing - each term from 1-224 gets the 1.8% increase and then everything is divided by 101.8% (the new value of the #1 pick) to create the value as a % of the pick. In this trade that means all three picks (2 from CLE and 1 from PHI) move up, causing the surplus to the Eagles to be larger in this trade calculator since all terms move up equally and Philly gets two of them. Make sense?

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    3. supplemental draft picks cannot be traded, so why would they carry value in a trade machine?

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    4. Although they can't be traded, they reduce the value of subsequent picks. As an example this year's draft had 8 supplemental picks between the last "normal" pick in the 4th round (Seattle) and the first of the 5th round (Philadelphia via Houston). Philadelphia's pick to lead off the 5th round was worth less due to the supplemental picks since they got the 141st choice rather than the 133rd.

      If the values excluded supplemental picks they would overvalue all later round picks.

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  4. Hello!
    How is it possible to use your Numbers Draft Trade Machine on my best bookmakers
    ??? Maybe it's necessary to download any type of software plugin?

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