Friday, April 27, 2012

3 Picks to Advance 1 Slot??!!

For just a taste of my ongoing project, here is my (still in process) grade of the Vikings-Browns trade last night that sent the #4, #118, #160 and #211 picks to Minnesota in exchange for the #3 pick.


The "Value" field pulls in the log regression of the average % of salary cap value provided by those picks in excess of the first undrafted free agent. That is to say the last pick of the 7th round may provide 0.7% of the cap value in an average season of their career, but they only provide 0.003% excess value over an undrafted free agent. Only the 0.003%, in that case, matters for the trade because that is the extra value provided over what the other team can achieve for free with the next best option (e.g., a UFA).

That will have to be it for the explanation as I need to get back to writing about 6,000 more words for my project on this very topic.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Programming Note

As some (based on page views, very few) of you may have noticed, things have been very quiet on here for the past few weeks. I am working on expanding my NFL Draft post that kicked off this blog into something a bit more substantial. Given a due date in mid-May I have to devote my non-paying work time to that rather than to new posts. I assure you I will be back with more hard-hitting excel charts and analysis that covers more than just the NFL, but it will be a few weeks. In the meantime I will drop off some scraps here that don't quite make it into the expanded piece.