Saturday, April 27, 2013

2013 NFL Draft - Evaluating the Day 2 trades

Note - See Day 1 evaluation here and Day 3 here

As with yesterday, here is a graphical representation of the trades from Day 2 of the draft as calculated by the Sports + Numbers draft value chart (explained here).

1. Smart teams trading with each other - I don't think it's a coincidence that the two trades that stand out as being very close to equal value are both between Green Bay and San Francisco. The only way that those go through is if both teams accept a different perspective  on the value of picks. The slight overcompensation goes to Green Bay as the team trading down.

2. Draft picks are made out of people - Two trades involved real, actual players in combination with draft picks. Miami-Cleveland, shown at far right of the graph, shows only the picks involved in the trade. Given the 4.5% value of the gap, this puts Davone Bess's value equivalent to the 182nd pick overall, midway through the 6th round. The Jets' trade for Chris Ivory, late of the New Orleans Saints, is much easier. The 106th pick, worth 10.9% of the first overall, was traded straight-up for Ivory. 

3. More evolution than revolution - As with yesterday, most of the trades conform to the existing "Jimmy Johnson" chart in use since the early 90s. 

4. Cleveland pulls a fast one - According to this chart Davone Bess is valued at 1.7%, but because the values decline so much faster on this chart that would be the 142nd pick. Given Miami's conformity to the existing chart in other trades, this represents a bonus to the Browns as they gave up what they consider to be worth a 6th rounder and the Dolphins believe they picked up a 5th rounder. The 106th pick, exchanged for Chris Ivory, is worth 2.7%.

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