Monday, August 26, 2013

Returns to inequality in the NHL

Take a look over here if you want to get the background for this series, otherwise read on. 
Sports + Numbers Prediction: "I am guessing that returns to inequality are strong here too, with relatively high leverage of the individual players resembling the NBA more than the NFL or MLB." 
The data 
To see the impact of inequality we will look at each team’s Gini coefficient against their winning percentage, controlling for team spending. The resulting equation gives us an r-squared value of 0.13 with only salary spending being significant (P-value of 0.00008) while the Gini coefficient comes in at a P-value of 0.21.
Payroll vs Points % (total points / potential points) - NHL 2009-10 to 2012-13
For every million dollars in team spending the expected increase in winning percentage is 0.00397. For a team that spends $10 million more than a comparable team – all else equal – we would expect them to win 3 additional games (or win 2 more with two additional overtime losses (or win 1 more with four additional overtime losses (or win the same number but have six additional overtime losses))).
Gini vs Points % (total points / potential points) - NHL 2009-10 to 2012-13
On inequality the - insignificant - coefficient is 0.19. Within the range of Gini coefficients in baseball (0.22 to 0.47) this would mean a difference of 8 points (4 wins but I’ll spare the rest) from the most equal to the least equal (more wins to the least equal). Not nothing but not exactly a huge impact. The gap in payroll ($30 million to $71 million) projects to a gap of nearly 27 points.
Payroll vs Gini (color-coded by points %) - NHL 2009-10 to 2012-13

Strength of the relationship over time

The relationship stays pretty consistent for each variable. For payroll the correlation from 2010-2013 runs 0.35, 0.56, 0.36, 0.37 with an overall correlation for the four years of 0.34. Looking just at the correlation between Gini and winning percentage, the values are 0.11, 0.13, -0.21, 0.15. The overall one-on-one correlation between Gini and winning percentage for the five year period (2010-2013) is 0.04.

Would you rather have one dollar or four quarters? You would rather have the dollar. The relationship is weak but directionally supports the notion that inequality benefits a team. As with other sports you’d rather have more money than worry too much about the distribution.

Sports + Numbers Predictive Accuracy: Medium – The NHL is certainly closer to the NBA than it is to MLB or NFL, but I got a bit overconfident using the word ‘strong’ to predict the relationship. Nothing here suggests that level of impact. 


As usual there were a few salaries that escaped the view of the data. The 2010 Atlanta Thrashers are for some reason not in the database I used ( so they are excluded. They were a middle of the road team (51% points percentage) so I don’t expect their result would have moved the needle too much. Where teams had fewer than 20 players in the data set we use the minimum salary for that year to fill in the holes and complete the code. Now we can make a baby dinosaur.

YearTeamWLOLPTSPTS%Adj PayrollGini
2013Chicago Blackhawks3675770.802$62,371,796 0.348054705
2013Pittsburgh Penguins36120720.750$63,731,667 0.376968661
2013Anaheim Ducks30126660.688$59,113,334 0.345757675
2013Montreal Canadiens29145630.656$61,403,333 0.287509598
2013Boston Bruins28146620.646$69,233,811 0.315963911
2013St. Louis Blues29172600.625$59,238,334 0.264531352
2013Vancouver Canucks26157590.615$60,013,333 0.363379564
2013Los Angeles Kings27165590.615$62,259,394 0.351983601
2013Toronto Maple Leafs26175570.594$56,654,167 0.34493953
2013Washington Capitals27183570.594$58,634,296 0.4045806
2013San Jose Sharks25167570.594$63,456,667 0.35357462
2013New York Rangers26184560.583$59,341,667 0.348927718
2013Ottawa Senators25176560.583$53,748,333 0.354110644
2013Detroit Red Wings24168560.583$64,167,045 0.289981702
2013New York Islanders24177550.573$46,697,143 0.314053889
2013Columbus Blue Jackets24177550.573$63,725,476 0.31838205
2013Minnesota Wild26193550.573$62,362,758 0.363378603
2013Winnipeg Jets24213510.531$61,502,857 0.317271176
2013Phoenix Coyotes21189510.531$57,466,667 0.335984977
2013Philadelphia Flyers23223490.510$65,408,096 0.256791737
2013New Jersey Devils191910480.500$55,666,667 0.328485884
2013Buffalo Sabres21216480.500$54,267,024 0.363408846
2013Dallas Stars22224480.500$60,972,778 0.33702567
2013Edmonton Oilers19227450.469$60,175,000 0.289809484
2013Carolina Hurricanes19254420.438$58,925,000 0.442915732
2013Calgary Flames19254420.438$55,503,750 0.294764502
2013Nashville Predators16239410.427$61,658,810 0.305226052
2013Tampa Bay Lightning18264400.417$61,998,810 0.336756699
2013Colorado Avalanche16257390.406$55,683,333 0.273128948
2013Florida Panthers15276360.375$49,432,042 0.342643373
2012Vancouver Canucks512291110.677$65,883,333 0.282714753
2012New York Rangers512471090.665$58,947,501 0.349662086
2012St. Louis Blues4922111090.665$55,684,166 0.278597199
2012Pittsburgh Penguins512561080.659$70,888,590 0.333146277
2012Nashville Predators482681040.634$46,000,476 0.438093175
2012Philadelphia Flyers472691030.628$55,316,667 0.342045074
2012New Jersey Devils482861020.622$56,154,167 0.322033672
2012Boston Bruins492941020.622$63,231,668 0.250188574
2012Detroit Red Wings482861020.622$56,371,211 0.287557357
2012Chicago Blackhawks4526111010.616$62,597,559 0.333769345
2012Phoenix Coyotes422713970.591$46,845,833 0.306107935
2012San Jose Sharks432910960.585$54,379,167 0.408474448
2012Los Angeles Kings402715950.579$57,774,393 0.363587615
2012Florida Panthers382618940.573$47,695,334 0.348139939
2012Ottawa Senators413110920.561$44,860,833 0.390296083
2012Washington Capitals42328920.561$55,352,905 0.428427273
2012Calgary Flames372916900.549$49,795,416 0.368689914
2012Buffalo Sabres393211890.543$54,047,024 0.355335879
2012Dallas Stars42355890.543$37,300,278 0.427864308
2012Colorado Avalanche41356880.537$54,058,333 0.286485059
2012Tampa Bay Lightning38368840.512$54,267,237 0.444438557
2012Winnipeg Jets373510840.512$53,813,500 0.310916992
2012Carolina Hurricanes333316820.500$42,744,167 0.471284014
2012Minnesota Wild353611810.494$67,587,757 0.371230799
2012Toronto Maple Leafs353710800.488$45,681,667 0.401814484
2012Anaheim Ducks343612800.488$58,601,667 0.264100783
2012New York Islanders343711790.482$52,252,500 0.318592636
2012Montreal Canadiens313516780.476$58,378,333 0.304183032
2012Edmonton Oilers324010740.451$52,008,333 0.28769047
2012Columbus Blue Jackets29467650.396$48,869,643 0.392118071
2011Vancouver Canucks541991170.713$64,033,333 0.275935151
2011Washington Capitals4823111070.652$62,109,128 0.378680725
2011Philadelphia Flyers4723121060.646$65,917,928 0.25314506
2011Pittsburgh Penguins492581060.646$61,884,000 0.375394876
2011San Jose Sharks482591050.640$58,325,001 0.364956894
2011Detroit Red Wings4725101040.634$56,171,211 0.325578364
2011Boston Bruins4625111030.628$53,704,167 0.343227335
2011Tampa Bay Lightning4625111030.628$59,697,713 0.348575613
2011Nashville Predators442711990.604$52,849,821 0.306848322
2011Anaheim Ducks47305990.604$51,510,000 0.340562628
2011Phoenix Coyotes432613990.604$51,775,000 0.236439723
2011Los Angeles Kings46306980.598$62,816,537 0.330196152
2011Chicago Blackhawks44299970.591$59,789,295 0.338951562
2011Montreal Canadiens44308960.585$50,311,342 0.37742872
2011Buffalo Sabres432910960.585$59,662,024 0.330974235
2011Dallas Stars422911950.579$42,312,500 0.284246551
2011Calgary Flames412912940.573$57,484,916 0.370531086
2011New York Rangers44335930.567$63,404,167 0.342952902
2011Carolina Hurricanes403111910.555$52,095,833 0.374732923
2011St. Louis Blues383311870.530$49,295,833 0.238119378
2011Minnesota Wild39358860.524$49,771,667 0.40657414
2011Toronto Maple Leafs373411850.518$54,974,167 0.307722452
2011New Jersey Devils38395810.494$51,006,667 0.372547016
2011Columbus Blue Jackets343513810.494$50,087,250 0.373563766
2011Atlanta Thrashers343612800.488$47,472,126 0.289268357
2011Ottawa Senators324010740.451$47,374,166 0.369072119
2011New York Islanders303913730.445$43,240,000 0.267983778
2011Florida Panthers304012720.439$50,817,875 0.310670235
2011Colorado Avalanche30448680.415$44,641,666 0.29438119
2011Edmonton Oilers254512620.378$61,233,333 0.26907225
2010Washington Capitals5415131210.738$54,800,795 0.418919414
2010San Jose Sharks5120111130.689$62,471,668 0.374850555
2010Chicago Blackhawks522281120.683$60,112,170 0.36448695
2010Phoenix Coyotes502571070.652$46,533,333 0.224024423
2010New Jersey Devils482771030.628$60,178,333 0.299460485
2010Vancouver Canucks492851030.628$55,450,000 0.34043253
2010Detroit Red Wings4424141020.622$44,609,544 0.380383237
2010Pittsburgh Penguins472871010.616$64,617,333 0.372043525
2010Los Angeles Kings462791010.616$53,361,666 0.326286495
2010Buffalo Sabres4527101000.610$47,117,024 0.422005774
2010Nashville Predators472961000.610$48,901,078 0.287900147
2010Colorado Avalanche43309950.579$41,234,999 0.379460762
2010Ottawa Senators44326940.573$48,008,333 0.379084317
2010Boston Bruins393013910.555$61,239,643 0.289111495
2010St. Louis Blues403210900.549$39,233,331 0.311633735
2010Calgary Flames403210900.549$56,951,160 0.357879059
2010Anaheim Ducks393211890.543$57,650,000 0.353116095
2010Philadelphia Flyers41356880.537$58,907,928 0.343890069
2010Montreal Canadiens393310880.537$54,137,976 0.398357421
2010Dallas Stars373114880.537$40,884,167 0.400833358
2010New York Rangers383311870.530$55,767,500 0.376595431
2010Minnesota Wild38368840.512$47,088,325 0.296034451
2010Carolina Hurricanes353710800.488$47,131,166 0.400046175
2010Tampa Bay Lightning343612800.488$58,281,046 0.330163885
2010New York Islanders343711790.482$33,625,000 0.359065333
2010Columbus Blue Jackets323515790.482$44,348,083 0.371995553
2010Florida Panthers323713770.470$29,788,334 0.333535803
2010Toronto Maple Leafs303814740.451$50,528,333 0.357252029
2010Edmonton Oilers27478620.378$53,783,333 0.293136783

No comments:

Post a Comment